College football bowl projections in the SEC: Predicting 2024's playoff, bowl teams from expanded league (2024)

Prior to a Week 8 game at Florida this season, Kentucky leaves the friendly confines of Kroger Field only once. That's five home games and a date with Ole Miss in Oxford over the first half of the slate. The problem here is top-ranked Georgia coming to Lexington in Week 3, essentially an unwinnable game when comparing roster talent. And after Florida, contests with Auburn, Tennessee and Texas await among others. There's a path to seven wins for the Wildcats if they're able to beat South Carolina in their SEC home opener on Sept. 7.

WillSouth Carolina get to bowl eligibility and erase the remnants of last season's slide? That's the plan for Shane Beamer in his fourth season in an attempt to recapture some of 2022's magic when the Gameco*cks beat a couple ranked teams down the stretch to play in the Gator Bowl. Six wins against a considerably difficult schedule would be a mini-win for Beamer and a hot start in September is vital toward that cause with the SEC opener at Kentucky in Week 2, followed by a home showdown with LSU.

CanBilly Napiersurprise everyone with a .500 finish against college football's toughest schedule— maybe ever— to secure a bowl berth? He'll have to pile up as many wins as possible early on given the brutality of the final five weeks of the slate:Georgia,Texas,LSU,Ole MissandFlorida State. That is murderer's row in the SEC followed up with a rivalry finale against the preseason ACC favorites. Florida is a team we're buying low on with these updated bowl projections.

Ready for fireworks out West? This matchup between a couple borderline top 25 teams would surely bring the goods if it happens. QuarterbackNoah Fifitais back for the Wildcats as they enter the Big 12 under first-year coachBrent Brennanwhile another new era commences in College Station withMike Elkotaking over. This Aggies roster is portal-heavy, which is what Elko envisioned when he took the job and had several positions of interest that saw a talent depletion due to departures.

Can you imagine what Kansas quarterback Jalon Daniels could do in Hugh Freeze's offense? The good news for the Jayhawks is that he's back at full strength after nursing a back injury throughout the 2023 campaign. Meanwhile, the Tigers have optimism at quarterback with Payton Thorne returning, who Freeze hopes takes the next step in his development and returns to near-Michigan State form and not what Auburn saw last season. The Texas Bowl is played in Houston and this would be Auburn's first appearance.

Oklahoma fans expect Brent Venables to win a bowl game for the first time this season as long as the Sooners can get to six wins against one of the SEC's toughest slates. That's the pessimistic outlook for a talented team entering its first season in college football's most competitive league. The other team here in Nashville?Defending Pac-12 champion Washington, which is now in the Big Ten with Jedd Fisch as coach. The Huskies should see a steep decline, at least in 2024, from last season's rise nationally, perhaps to the eight-win mark.

Couldtwo10-win teams fail to reach the playoff this season? Expect a bunch of arguing from the Tigers and Wolverinesif that's the case in what we expect to be a SEC- and Big Ten-dominated field. We're expecting the Citrus Bowl to get first dibs on the elites outside of that top 12. Michigan is coming off a perfect season and national championship, but has to playTexasearly before another gauntlet of a schedule. And despite holdingthe nation's longest winning streak entering August, this new-look roster in Ann Arbor replaces several high-end draft picks.By comparison, Missouri has it much easier relative to most other SEC and Big Ten slates.

There's undoubtedly going to be an elite SEC team— or several— miss out on the playoff simply because there's not enough spots yet for a single league-dominated postseason, but it's coming. Brian Kelly overhauled his defensive staff after last year's disappointment on that side, but personnel questions remain. In this Gator Bowl scenario, the Tigers are looking at nine wins, which won't be enough to reach the expanded playoff. NC State will be a true contender in the ACC and gets Tennessee early.

Another powerful SEC team just outside of the playoff picture, at least right now, the Vols could be heading back to Central Florida for the postseason. Tennessee last played in Tampa at the end of the 2015 season and could play a Big Ten elite once again to end the campaign. If the Vols go 4-0 on September, this projection pushes toward a playoff appearance.Besides, are there any Vols fans out there who want to play Iowa and that offense again?

Back in a major game for the second-straight year under Jamey Chadwell, this time, Liberty should get to the playoff as the Group of Five's unbeaten representative. The schedule is out of a bakery shop, so if there's another Group of Five team with better wins saddled with a single loss, perhaps they get the nod. As for Texas, a projected second-place finish in the SEC in this spot puts the Longhorns with the No. 5 seed and a first-round home game with a guaranteed sellout coming.

Two surprise picks in the playoff come in Oxford — Miami against Ole Miss — for the first round's most appetizing projected matchup. Both of these talented teams are portal-laden with an infrastructure in place to win big in the ACC and SEC, respectively. However, for now, both are paper champions. The Rebels have shown sizable success under Lane Kiffin, but haven't appeared in the SEC Championship Game yet during his tenure and the Hurricanes are simply trying to meet expectations. Miami is the first of two projected ACC teams in the playoff field.

The first of four SEC teams we're projecting to reach the playoff, Kalen DeBoer's Year 1 would be a raging success if the Crimson Tide get back to the tournament. This time around, winning a first-round road game at Penn State in December will be a considerable challenge. With Jalen Milroe returning, several portal additions expected to help and a top-end signing class with a couple immediate-impact freshmen, an Alabama slide this fall would be two regular-season losses. And 10-2 for the Crimson Tide, with this schedule, should be enough to garner love from the selection committee.

One of a couple SEC regular-season rematcheswe couldsee this fall thanks to playoff expansion, the second game is considerably more important for the Bulldogs and Rebels with the winner moving on to the final four. However, Ole Miss-Georgia in Pasadena doesn't feel right with two SEC powers going out West. No one's going to complain on either side and Georgia's previous trip to Los Angeles is a fond memory for Bulldogs fans after beating Oklahoma, but this one's different.

Alabama gets past its first-round challenge against the Nittany Lions only to face potential top-seeded Ohio State, our projected Big Ten champion, next. Alabama is familiar with postseason games in New Orleans. In fact, prior to dismantling the Buckeyes in the 2020 national championship, the Crimson Tide lost to Ohio State in the Sugar Bowl during the 2014 playoff. If we get this matchup a few months from now, one of the pre-game storylines will be Caleb Downs and Julian Sayin — two Alabama transfers — facing their former team.

Can the Longhorns get back to the final four to cap their first season in the SEC? It's possible. No disrespect to the Seminoles, our projected ACC champion, but battling this roster will be their toughest task of the season if we get to that point. Texas has a Herculean two-deep in terms of talent, while Florida State once again largely rebuilt its lineup through college football's version of free agency. Surprisingly, these two bluebloods have never met on the gridiron.